Trump 2.0

-- by Jessie Gabriel

It has happened. On Monday, Donald J. Trump started his second term in office. This is not what many of us wanted, but we can’t be in denial about it any longer. And to those of us who were hoping that he was just talking a big game but would be more passive once he sat himself down at the resolute desk . . . nope. The executive orders are already flying. 

This is not meant to be a political diatribe. This is meant to be practical. Given the reality of a second Trump term, it’s time to talk business. What does this version of President Trump mean for what we all intend to accomplish over the next four years? While it is impossible to know for sure–both because Trump is unpredictable but also because there are too many variables at play–some themes are emerging. 

Trump Hates DEI: Part I. We have already started to see the extent to which President Trump plans to take this position and implement it. All federal DEI staff have been put on leave. Now that sends a message. What does this mean for you? Many of our funds have an explicit or implicit mandate to invest in companies led by women and people of color. These theses have already been put at risk by the Fearless Fund litigation, but we can now reasonably expect the executive branch (which includes the Justice Department) to push this further. We will be posting more on this issue in detail. For now, it’s a space for you to keep an eye on and keep in mind as you market the work you are doing as investors.  

Trump Hates DEI: Part II. President Trump has also indicated that he intends to stop all minority federal contracting programs. These programs have existed to increase access to federal contracts for diverse-owned businesses, which had historically been excluded from many commercial opportunities. Let’s pause for a moment to recognize the in-your-face irony of Donald Trump talking about the importance of a “merit-based” and “color-blind” system. Just a reminder that you can’t have a truly “merit-based” or “color-blind” system that is equitable until everyone is standing on even ground, which we are unfortunately far from. Back to what this means for you: if your business relies in any way on minority supplier diversity programs at the federal or state level, you may be fine because you are already part of the system and have developed relationships within these agencies. However, if you are building a business with the intent to utilize these programs, you may want to start rethinking that model. 

Trump Loves Rich Tech VCs. It almost feels as if some of the biggest names in Silicon Valley wrote Trump’s economic policy agenda. . . Who is already winning big? Investors in crypto, AI, and (drumroll) space travel! If you are working in those spaces or investing in those spaces, this could be good news for you. We will need to wait to see details before knowing what these programs will entail or how the private sector can access them. Our hope is that access won’t be limited to Trump’s inner circle, which is a concern with any administration and this one in particular.  

Trump Hates Green Things. Trump has indicated a hard pivot back to fossil fuels, even though we recorded the hottest year on record in 2024 and the U.S. is already producing more oil and natural gas than any other country. Strangely, he also indicated he would stop supporting electric cars. Apparently, Trump isn’t quite as far into Elon’s pocket as we thought. Moving away from my own pettiness . . . the people who are at risk here are all human beings present and future as the planet continues to warm, with the U.S. being the largest contributor of greenhouse gases. Putting that aside (sigh), the private markets are unlikely to reduce their own interest in climate technology. Nearly all scientists are on the same page here and most investors listen to scientists.  

It remains to be seen how much President Trump can accomplish through execute order alone. Much of what he has announced will be challenged in court (which is already happening) or will require actions by Congress (which might be available to him on some items, but not all). Regardless, he has already made clear what his policy focus will be, and we can safely assume his cabinet will be aligned with that vision. For now, all we can do is watch, speculate, and start some anticipatory triage. The Trump Show has been renewed for a second season. Stay tuned.